Authors: Graham G., Colin T., Richard W.
We are interested in testing whether Moores law holds in several different tech sectors. Does Moore’s Law hold for processing power? How about memory capacity? What about pixel densities in cameras? All of these questions relate directly back to whether or not Moore’s law holds because they are the effects of the different areas the law affects. By looking at data over many years for these individual traits, we can compare how the number of transistors on a chip translates to the technologies that number is supposed to make better.
Data for these questions should be quite easy to obtain. It isn’t very difficult to go online and find historic prices for different processors, hard drives and cameras. What is difficult is determining what is reasonable as “the technology” for a given year. For any given year, we will likely be able to find many processor and hard drive models on the market, so determining what a given year’s “transistor count” or “cost per megabyte” may be much more difficult to ascertain. We will need to come up with some method for averaging the prices for different models in a given year.
For each of our questions, we will compare the data on processing power, memory capacity and pixel densities to the number of transistors on an integrated circuit to see if the trend holds. We will do a two-sided test for our analysis for each technology. Our null hypothesis will be that we accept Moore’s Law, since it is merely an estimation of the advancement of technology and we can allow some tolerance if it does not hold precisely. Our alternate hypothesis will be that the Law does not hold and that it either overestimates or underestimates our ability to continue this growth.
We will also examine the errors that go along with our hypothesis tests. Type I Error would be concluding Moore’s Law doesn’t hold when it actually does. Type II Error would be concluding that Moore’s Law does hold when in fact it doesn’t.
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